The SAF Grand Challenge will guide federal actions to support the industry to reduce costs, enhance sustainability, and expand the production and use of SAF to meet the following goals:
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A minimum of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to conventional fuel.
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3 billion gallons per year of domestic SAF production by 2030.
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At least 35 billion gallons per year of domestic SAF production to satisfy 100% of domestic demand by 2050.
The content on this page (SAF Grand Challenge) is a reproduction of information originally sourced from Biomass Research and Development Board and the U.S. Department of Energy.
We do not claim ownership of the original material, and all rights to the content remain with the respective authors and organizations.
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge:
Inaugurated on Sept. 9, 2021, the SAF Grand Challenge is the result of DOE, DOT, and USDA launching a government-wide Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that will attempt to reduce cost, enhance the sustainability, and expand the production and use of SAF while meeting the following goals:
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A minimum of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional fuel.
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3 billion gallons per year of domestic SAF by 2030.
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35 billion gallons of SAF to satisfy 100% of domestic demand by 2050.
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The SAF Grand Challenge and the increased production of SAF will play a critical role in a broader set of actions by the United States government and the private sector to reduce the aviation sector’s emissions in a manner consistent with the goal of net-zero emissions for the U.S. economy, and to put the aviation sector on a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050.
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In recognition of the critical role that drop-in synthesized hydrocarbon fuel from waste streams, renewable energy sources, or gaseous carbon oxides—or SAF—will play in addressing the climate change crisis, and its role for jobs and the economy, DOE, DOT, and USDA undertake the MOU to ensure the highest level of collaboration and coordination across the agencies.
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Through the MOU, DOE, DOT, and USDA intend to accelerate the research, development, demonstration, and deployment needed for an ambitious government-wide commitment to scale up the production of SAF to at least 35 billion gallons per year by 2050 to satisfy 100% of domestic demand. A near-term goal of 3 billion gallons per year is established as a milestone for 2030.
CAAFI's Specific Role:
CAAFI - Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative is working with our public, private, and non-governmental sector stakeholders to support SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap implementation. The Roadmap utilizes the following nested structure:
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Action Areas - Six primary themes of emphasis
Workstreams - Critical topics to be addressed
Activities - Specific efforts of execution​
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A commercial jet with biofuel tank. Photo courtesy of iStock.com.
The work of CAAFI will take various forms in support of the Roadmap. For instance, CAAFI has developed resources that support knowledge dissemination and communication about SAF to aid stakeholders in all Action Areas. In other cases, CAAFI might organize, lead, or advise certain activities like a task force or workshop designed to inform Roadmap leadership.
In the following section, you will find links to help you navigate to relevant CAAFI content focused on the Action Areas. Stay tuned for progress on these efforts.
SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap
To achieve the SAF Grand Challenge goals, the interagency team worked with other government agencies; stakeholders from national labs, universities, non-governmental organizations; and the aviation, agricultural, and energy industries to develop the SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap: Flight Plan for Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
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The Roadmap outlines a whole-of-government approach to work with and support industry to meet the goals of the SAF Grand Challenge. These goals include aiming to increase emissions reductions; de-risk technology, supply chains, and markets through demonstration, investment, and policy analysis; and reduce barriers that hinder distribution and end use of SAF.
SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap Implementation Framework
The interagency team released the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge Roadmap Implementation Framework in November 2024, a supplemental document to the roadmap.
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This Framework provides stakeholders and the public insight into the current efforts of Federal agencies to implement roadmap actions. It also identifies gaps in current programs and existing barriers to achieving the SAF Grand Challenge goals. Many of these gaps need support from SAF stakeholders to meet these goals.
SAF Grand Challenge: Tracking Metrics and Mid-2024 Dashboard
The SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap outlines a whole-of-government approach with coordinated policies and specific activities that should be undertaken to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge goals.
To track progress in achieving these goals, the following four metrics have been developed:
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Estimated total U.S. SAF production.
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Estimated life cycle CO2 reductions achieved with U.S. SAF production.
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Planned production potential of SAF in the United States.
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Applicable research, development, and deployment projects.
SAF Grand Challenge: Building Supply Chains Request for Information Summary Report
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) released a Summary Report from a September 2023 Request for Information (RFI) seeking public feedback on building supply chains to meet SAF Grand Challenge goals. The RFI was open to the public for two months and collected input and recommendations from industry, academia, national laboratories, government agencies, and other stakeholders needed for making progress towards a more sustainable future for the U.S. aviation sector.
SAF Grand Challenge Partners
Successful implementation of the SAF Grand Challenge will require close collaboration of agencies across the federal government—particularly DOE, USDA, DOT and its Federal Aviation Administration, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Working within the structure of the interagency Biomass Research and Development Board, an interagency working group on SAF has been established to enable coordination with representatives of a broader set of government agencies.
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U.S. Department of Energy: DOE is researching and developing sustainable fuel production technology, supporting technology scale-up, and advancing environmental analysis of SAF.
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U.S. Department of Agriculture: USDA is developing feedstock supply chain systems suitable for SAF and supporting commercialization.
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U.S. Department of Transportation: DOT has capabilities in fuel qualification, U.S. and international standard-setting, supply chain analysis, and stakeholder outreach.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: EPA is working directly with all three agencies on existing regulations that can support SAF production.
The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge is the result of the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Transportation, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other federal government agencies working together to develop a comprehensive strategy for scaling up new technologies to produce sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) on a commercial scale.
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The Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge Roadmap outlines coordinated policies and actions by relevant U.S. government agencies to support stakeholders in realizing the goals of the SAF Grand Challenge.
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The Roadmap enables agencies to coordinate activities in research, development, and demonstration to catalyze technology innovation, public–private partnerships, policy frameworks, and investments needed to address barriers to achieving the SAF Grand Challenge goals.
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Under the Roadmap, federal agencies will coordinate with the aviation industry, fuel producers, agriculture, research, academia, state/local/tribal governments, and others to accelerate the growth of a domestic SAF industry that utilizes U.S. manufacturing capacities and the U.S. workforce, contributes to U.S. energy security, aids economic growth in rural America, and supports a just transition to a low-carbon aviation future.
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The Roadmap has and will continue to incorporate input from key stakeholders to ensure alignment of government and industry actions. The Roadmap is the beginning of an evolving, collaborative, and dynamic process. Regular updates will be informed by technological progress, market developments, and analysis activities.
Action Areas for the SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap
The Roadmap lays out six action areas spanning all activities with the potential to impact the SAF Grand Challenge objectives of (1) expanding SAF supply and end use, (2) reducing the cost of SAF, and (3) enhancing the sustainability of SAF.
![figure-2_SAF-roadmap_v3[94].jpg](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/c52adb_3ed943ce5ee44b8eab33617fa282d754~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_956,h_394,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/figure-2_SAF-roadmap_v3%5B94%5D.jpg)
The SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap overview figure depicts how the six action areas address barriers across the entire supply chain from innovations in feedstock supply through end use. Within each of the six action areas are workstreams that define critical topics to be addressed.
Flight Plan for SAF
Feedstock Innovation Action Area
The Feedstock Innovation Action Area lays out R&D workstreams facilitating sustainable feedstock supply system innovations across the range of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)-relevant feedstocks, as well as enabling supply chain optimization to reduce cost, technology uncertainty, and risk; increasing yield and sustainability; and optimizing SAF precursors (e.g., ethanol and isobutanol). Using an evolving approach, feedstock supply systems will be developed to interface with existing or emerging conversion technologies to enable SAF production to meet near-term (2030) and longer-term (2050) U.S. SAF production targets. The Feedstock Innovation Action Area overlaps with other action areas in the roadmap, including Conversion Technology Innovation, Building Supply Chains, and Policy and Valuation Analysis.
Key Actions and Workstreams Supporting SAF Feedstock Innovation
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Understand resource markets and availability to foster an understanding of supply and demand dynamics for feedstocks under the proposed production levels for SAF and develop common and accessible databases for SAF feedstock.
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Maximize sustainable lipid supply for 2030 through a coordinated approach to lipid feedstock research, development, demonstration, and deployment.
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Increase production of purpose-grown biomass resources and collection of wastes and residues by enabling innovations that will lead to the development of technologies and strategies that will increase the availability of biomass and waste resources for use as sustainable aviation fuel feedstocks at reduced carbon intensity, inputs, and cost.
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Improve feedstock supply logistics with R&D to support the development of collection and harvesting systems, including transportation, storage, and preprocessing to increase efficiencies and decrease cost and carbon intensity.
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Increase reliability of feedstock handling systems through understanding how feedstock composition, structure, and behavior impact system performance.
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Improve sustainability of biomass and waste supply systems through understanding how biomass production and waste collection for use as a sustainable aviation fuel feedstock impacts air, water, soil, biodiversity, and social/environmental justice.
2030 Feedstock Innovation Impact Highlight
Maximize Sustainable Lipid Supply
Increasing the supply of sustainable lipid feedstocks to support near-term SAF production has been identified as a critical need. As an element of a coordinated approach to lipid feedstock research, development, demonstration and deployment, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will work with U.S. farmers to develop and improve sustainable oilseed supply through expanded R&D and pilot trials for emerging oilseed cover crops. Expanding cover crops with low land-use-change impact will be vital to support the 2030 SAF production goal of 3 billion gallons per year.
Conversion Technology Innovation Action Area
The Conversion Technology Innovation Action Area covers R&D through pilot scale from the receipt of biomass at the refinery gate through finished sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to achieve technology improvements and carbon intensity reductions. The effort includes processes that are already commercialized, such as the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway, or nearing commercialization (e.g., the alcohol-to-jet [ATJ] pathway), and addresses work on processes that will be ready for commercialization beyond 2030 but need to be developed now. Workstreams between the Conversion Technology Innovation and Feedstock Innovation action areas will need to collaborate to ensure the delivery of feedstock suitable for conversion and conversion processes that maximize retainment of emissions reductions achievable through feedstock. Technology that is developed through integrated piloting is handed off to the Building Supply Chains area workgroups for regional supply chain demonstration projects.
Key Actions and Workstreams Supporting SAF Conversion Technology Innovation
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Improvements to the fermentation fuel industry to reduce the carbon intensity of the existing starch ethanol industry and increase its production capacity without requiring the planting of additional corn.
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Improvements to existing ASTM-qualified pathways to accelerate deployment of pathways that have already been qualified.
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Development of biointermediates and pathways for compatibility with existing capital assets to accelerate production and reduce cost of SAF.
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Reduce scale-up and operational risk by proactively addressing resiliency in process and equipment design.
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Develop innovative unit operations and pathways to broaden the availability of SAF.
2030 Conversion Technology Innovation Impact Highlight
Enable Alcohol-to-Jet and Coprocessing Pathways
The existing corn ethanol industry has tremendous near-term potential to increase SAF production volumes through the ATJ pathway. Reducing the carbon intensity and increasing the carbon efficiency of corn ethanol are key barriers to realizing this potential. Activities under this workstream focus on improving the carbon intensity of existing corn ethanol facilities through carbon-smart technologies and agricultural practices. Additionally, dramatic improvements in water balances and energy intensity of the ATJ process are possible through development of water-tolerant catalysts and advanced separation technologies.
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The utilization of bio-derived intermediates in existing capital assets may also contribute to the 2030 production goal. Developing processes to produce such intermediates that are "drop-in" substitutes for fats, oils, and greases or bio-oil in petroleum hydrotreaters, identifying insertion and blending points, and working with industry partners to determine critical material attributes of bio-derived intermediates are key examples of activities with potential impact on 2030 production goals.
Building Supply Chains Action Area
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply chains encompass feedstock production, collection, and distribution to SAF production facilities; conversion of feedstock to fuel; and transport of finished fuel to the infrastructure required to fuel aircraft. Because current fuel certifications currently require SAF to be blended with conventional fuels, the SAF supply chain also requires coordination with conventional jet fuel industries. As SAF production is a nascent industry, SAF supply chains are immature, may be regionally unique, and will likely require significant resources and investment to establish. This action area will support SAF production expansion through R&D transitions from pilot to large scale, demonstration projects to validate supply chain logistics and business models, and public–private partnerships and collaboration with regional, state, and local stakeholders.
Key Actions and Workstreams Supporting SAF Building Supply Chains
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Convene regional stakeholder coalitions to lead the exploration and development of SAF supply chains and provide outreach, extension, and education supporting SAF supply chain growth.
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Develop and disseminate comprehensive data, analysis, and modeling tools as a foundation for the development of low-greenhouse gas, cost-effective deployment of feedstock to fueling supply chains, SAF manufacturing, and logistics solutions.
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Support feedstock-to-fueling demonstration projects to de-risk and mature key elements in the supply chain from feedstock through airport distribution.
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Invest in commercial-scale SAF production infrastructure and facility development with existing and new public–private partnerships to expand domestic SAF supply.
2030 Building Supply Chains Impact Highlights
Convene and Support Stakeholder Coalitions
Standing up complex SAF supply chains will involve engagement with and contributions from a diverse group of stakeholders. Convening and incentivizing stakeholder coalitions will be vital to developing regional solutions to build a renewable fuels industry that improves environmental and economic performance while supporting job creation and social equity. These coalitions will need to evaluate all elements of the supply chain and provide recommendations to advance deployment, attract investment, advocate for policy change, support workforce development, and identify solutions to deployment barriers and risks.
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Invest in SAF Infrastructure
​Utilize loans and loan guarantees, assistance grants, and other government funding mechanisms and opportunities to enable rapid scaling of commercial technologies. For 2030, these investments will leverage existing corn ethanol and agricultural industry and infrastructure to accelerate production, as well as existing rail/heavy-duty/long-haul transport for airport SAF supply. Near-term investments are expected to build on existing oil and gas refinery and other industrial brownfield industry and infrastructure to accelerate and ramp up to required volumes of production.
Policy and Valuation Analysis Action Area
The objective of this action area is to provide data, tools, and analysis to support policy decisions and maximize social, economic, and environmental value of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Workstreams in this action area will evaluate the impact of existing and new policies to address key barriers that prevent production and use of SAF. Data and analytical tools will be used to demonstrate where policy needs to be developed to address major production challenges and enhancements to emission reductions. Workstreams will develop improved environmental models and data for SAF, conduct techno-economic and production potential analysis, and inform SAF policy development and coordination. Key activities include engagement and collaboration with key stakeholder groups, including nongovernmental organizations and international organizations such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), on data and method development. Coordination across federal agencies has started on key topics such as life cycle analysis with the formation of a multi-agency working group. Other activities are being coordinated via the Biomass Research and Development Board's Sustainable Aviation Fuel Interagency Working Group.
Key Actions and Workstreams Supporting SAF Policy and Valuation Analysis
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Develop improved environmental and socioeconomic data and analytical tools for SAF to ensure environmental integrity and appropriately account for SAF emission reduction benefits.
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Conduct techno-economic and production potential analysis by expanding and refining modeling capabilities to inform research development, demonstration, and deployment of SAF, and evaluate the opportunities and scenarios necessary to meet goals and provide direction.
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Inform SAF policy development by identifying opportunities and strategies to improve and coordinate existing policy and regulatory mechanisms that can increase availability of SAF.
2030 Policy and Valuation Analysis Impact Highlight
Convene Life Cycle Analysis Working Group
A life cycle greenhouse gas emissions working group has been convened. As requested by the SAF Grand Challenge memorandum of understanding, this working group will define and agree on the appropriate science-based methodology for establishing life cycle emissions reductions under the SAF Grand Challenge, recognizing the need for credibility and taking note of consistency with international criteria, such as those developed by ICAO. The working group will focus on domestic needs for life cycle greenhouse gas emissions analysis.
Enabling End Use Action Area
The Enabling End Use Action Area focuses on research, development, demonstration, and deployment activities to facilitate the end use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by civilian and military users. The action area focuses on addressing critical barriers and requirements for safe and cost-effective use of SAF via standards development and critical R&D and analysis. The workstreams include SAF qualification, reaching 100% drop-in SAF, fuel performance evaluation, and SAF integration with existing fuel distribution infrastructure. Efforts spanning these key areas will address critical barriers to SAF deployment.
Key Actions and Workstreams Supporting SAF Enabling End Use
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SAF evaluation, testing, qualification, and specification: Supporting fuel qualification via the ASTM D4054 (Standard Practice for Evaluation of New Aviation Turbine Fuels and Fuel Additives) Clearinghouse can alleviate the testing burden on fuel producers.
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Enable use of drop-in unblended SAF and SAF blends up to 100%: Work to develop specifications for 100% SAF, both in neat form and blended with other SAF, enables additional opportunities for fuel producers and suppliers to simplify distribution logistics and reduce risk along the supply chain.
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Investigate Jet A fuel derivatives offering performance or producibility advantages: Understanding the advantages and challenges of novel jet fuels with unique performance differences, such as greater energy density, will help identify reasonable opportunities that may exist for such fuels.
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Integrate SAF into fuel distribution infrastructure: Although the focus of the SAF Grand Challenge is on drop-in SAF, fully fungible with existing supply and distribution infrastructure and aircraft, there are logistical questions related to fuel blending and efficient integration into existing fuel supply infrastructure that must be addressed for scaling up SAF delivery to airports.
2030 End Use Impact Highlights
Enable SAF Use up to 100%
Currently, SAF is required to be blended (at a maximum of 50% by volume) with petroleum jet fuel, but the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is working with federal partners and industry to define drop-in jet fuel requirements for synthetic aviation turbine fuels that can be qualified at levels up to 100% without the need for blending with petroleum. As an element of a coordinated approach to enable drop-in SAF that can be used up to 100%, one specific area of investigation being pursued by FAA is the use of cycloparaffins to promote elastomeric seal swelling and their potential to replace aromatic compounds. Qualification of 100% SAF could enable SAF producers to reduce cost and simplify logistics of delivery, allow maximum flow of SAF through constrained supply infrastructure, and increase the emissions benefits of SAF use, all of which will contribute to the 2030 goal.
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Integrate SAF Into Fuel Distribution Infrastructure
Distribution and delivery infrastructure gaps, capacity challenges, and integration needs for SAF are anticipated but not fully understood. The U.S. Department of Transportation/FAA will support analysis and feasibility studies to assess SAF integration potential and challenges for SAF into current infrastructure, including delivery to pipeline systems and airports/end users. An understanding of the technical and capacity challenges and how these can be addressed safely and efficiently will be critical to supporting the 2030 SAF production goal of 3 billion gallons per year.
Communicating Progress and Building Support Action Area
Effective communication that transparently demonstrates the environmental, climate, and economic benefits of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is vital to building public trust and increasing support. For the SAF Grand Challenge to be successful, public awareness of SAF as one of the solutions to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aviation, while simultaneously investing in the U.S. domestic economy, will be critical. This includes making transparent, science-based analysis and data on the impacts and benefits of SAF and progress toward SAF Grand Challenge goals available to the public. Communication activities will support workstreams across the other five action areas, including engagement with key stakeholder groups such as nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).
Key Actions and Workstreams Supporting SAF Communicating Progress and Building Support
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Stakeholder outreach and engagement on sustainability to exchange information about best practices to reduce life cycle GHG emissions from agricultural- and forest-derived feedstocks.
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Conduct benefits assessment/impact analysis of SAF Grand Challenge to inform decisions, demonstrate benefits, and mitigate negative impacts.
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Measure progress of the SAF Grand Challenge to provide updates, measure success, and show where progress needs to be made.
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Communicate public benefits of the SAF Grand Challenge to address common concerns/misconceptions and further build public support.
2030 Communicating Progress and Building Support Impact Highlight
Stakeholder Outreach and Engagement on Sustainability
Outreach and engagement with stakeholder groups will continue to be critical for building support and exchanging knowledge to achieve the 2030 goals. The U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the Federal Aviation Administration will hold consultations and listening sessions with NGO, agricultural, and forestry communities to understand needs and best practices to reduce life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from feedstock production and improve sustainability.
Progress
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge Progress
The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge is the result of the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other federal government agencies working together to develop a comprehensive strategy for scaling up new technologies to produce sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) on a commercial scale.
The SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap outlines a whole-of-government approach with coordinated policies and specific activities that should be undertaken to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge goals.
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To track progress on achieving these goals, the following four metrics have been developed:
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Estimated total U.S. SAF production.
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Estimated life cycle CO2 reductions achieved with U.S. SAF production.
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Planned production potential of SAF in the United States.
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Applicable research, development, and deployment projects.
SAF Grand Challenge Metrics Dashboard
Since the SAF Grand Challenge was announced, annual SAF domestic production and imports have grown from 5 million gallons in 2021 to 52 million gallons through the first six months of 2024. Fifty-two million gallons corresponds to more than 300,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions reductions.
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Based on a database of active projects, between 2.6 and 4.9 billion gallons per year of SAF may be produced by 2030, creating a clear pathway to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge near-term goal. More information about U.S. SAF production, annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions from SAF, and SAF production potential is below.
SAF Production
Source: EPA. “Public Data for the Renewable Fuel Standard.” epa.gov/fuels-registration-reporting-and-compliance-help/public-data-renewable-fuel-standard.
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Based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Renewable Identification Number (RIN) values, SAF annual domestic production and imports grew from 5 million gallons in 2021 to 26 million gallons in 2023; 52 million gallons have been produced and imported through June 2024.a
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Through June 2024, SAF is predominantly based on conversion of fat, oil, and grease feedstocks through the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) process.
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Based on public reporting, major commercial producers in this time frame include World Energy, Montana Renewables, Sinclair, and Neste Oil.
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a RIN data are currently the best available data source. In the future, the plan is to solicit SAF production data directly from U.S. producers.
Annual GHG Reduction
Source: Calculations by the U.S. Department of Energy based on 50%–70% GHG reduction.
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Based on assumptions for the fat, oil, and grease feedstocks used, life cycle GHG reductions range between 50% and 70% compared to conventional jet fuel.b
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For 2023, this corresponds to reductions in GHG emissions between 154,000 and 216,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e).
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More than 300,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent GHG emission reductions have been realized through June 2024.
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b These calculations are based on the RIN production data in the previous figure. In the future, the plan is to solicit GHG reduction data directly from U.S. SAF producers.
SAF Production Potential
Source data for the future potential volumes will be available in a forthcoming ASCENT 01 publication. Brandt, K; Wolcott, M. (2024).
RD data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
SAF data source: EPA. “Public Data for the Renewable Fuel Standard.”
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Based on a database of active projects,1 between 2.6 and 4.9 billion gallons per year of SAF may be produced by 2030, creating a clear pathway to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge near-term goal.2
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This volume is predominantly renewable diesel (RD) capacity that could be shifted to SAF under favorable policy and market conditions.
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Historically, very little RD production has shifted to SAF production. The Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI), a joint venture between DOT’s Federal Aviation Administration and the commercial aviation industry, is tracking more than 2 billion gallons per year of SAF production intent by the end of 2028 and is working with 200 potential SAF producers on their commercialization planning efforts.
Key Assumptions
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A project success ratio of 0.5 is applied to active RD and SAF projects.3
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The low scenarios include the potential SAF distillate cut from active projects.
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The high scenarios add a higher SAF distillate cut achievable with additional equipment upgrades and operating expense.4
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Active projects are RD and SAF projects that are either currently producing, in construction, or announced and proceeding with development. To be included, projects must have a publicly announced start date, conversion technology, and capacity.
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No new projects have been announced with start dates later than 2028.
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The project success ratio, calculated from historic data, is used to estimate the number of active projects expected to successfully produce RD and/or SAF. An average project success ratio of 0.5 has been derived based on a historical database of RD and SAF projects and was applied to all active RD and SAF projects not currently in production. A project success ratio of 1.0 was applied to actively producing projects, as well as all announced coprocessing projects, as they are assumed to have a high implementation rate.
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SAF low and high potential scenarios assume 40% and 80%, respectively, of total HEFA distillate volume redirected to SAF.
Tools & Resources
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ASCENT – The Aviation Sustainability Center
ASCENT is a cooperative aviation research organization co-led by Washington State University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. ASCENT is funded by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S. Department of Defense, Transport Canada, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The mission of ASCENT includes exploring ways to produce SAF at a commercial scale, creating an industry with the potential for large-scale economic development and job creation.
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Biden Administration Advances the Future of Sustainable Fuels in American Aviation
This White House fact sheet describes new actions to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge goals and other initiatives to reduce emissions from aviation.
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Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI)
CAAFI is a coalition of airlines, aircraft and engine manufacturers, energy producers, researchers, international participants, and U.S. government agencies working together for the development and deployment of alternative jet fuels for commercial aviation. CAAFI is supported in part by the FAA Office of Environment and Energy.
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Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) SAF Grand Challenge
Signed by the DOE, DOT, and USDA department secretaries in conjunction with the EPA, this MOU launched the government-wide SAF Grand Challenge.
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United States 2021 Aviation Climate Action Plan
Published by the FAA, this report describes a government-wide approach to put the sector on a path toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The plan builds on individual and sector-wide commitments announced by the U.S. aviation industry and highlights specific actions and policy measures to foster innovation and drive change across the entire U.S. aviation sector.
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USDA Sustainable Agricultural Systems Coordinated Agriculture Projects
The USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Sustainable Agricultural Systems program area funds $10 million Coordinated Agricultural Projects to develop new or improved approaches for the production and manufacturing of clean energy, including SAF. Several regional bioenergy projects have developed feedstocks, such as winter oilseed crops and oilseed cover crops, which can be used for SAF production. These projects take systematic approaches to address regional biomass feedstock production, logistics, conversion technologies, and the analysis of impacts on agriculture and forestry markets, rural communities, and ecosystems.
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Review of Technical Pathways Report (2020)
Part I of this DOE report provides an overview of commercial jet aviation fuel, including how it compares to fuels for cars and trucks, its composition, its specification, and its certification process. Part II provides insights resulting from a study of the aviation fuel industry, challenges of and successes with the approved pathways, and DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office capabilities and research and development portfolio. The insights focus on reducing cost and optimizing the value proposition for SAF.
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Memorandum of Understanding between DOE, DOT, USDA
The activities underlying this MOU represent an investment in America that not only reduces our environmental impact, but also supports energy independence and creates jobs in agriculture, forestry, infrastructure, research and development and other areas where America already excels at production. This MOU also supports a just transition of the energy industry to a low carbon future. Environmental responsibility, equity and economic sensibility go hand in handwith this effort.
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State of SAF Production Process
Part 1 of U.S. Department of Energy Sustainable Aviation Fuel State-of-Industry Report examines the overall state of the SAF production process and covers challenges and gaps in meeting near-term targets associated with the SAF Grand Challenge. This segment of the report is designed to address broad challenges facing the bioenergy industry when producing SAF and is not specific to any single feedstock or production pathway.
Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids Pathway
Part 2 of U.S. Department of Energy Sustainable Aviation Fuel State-of-Industry Report specifically focuses on evaluating the current supply chain for the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway. Facilities using this pathway are already producing volumes of liquid fuel today, and they are expected to play a major role in meeting the 2030 production target from the SAF Grand Challenge. This segment of the report looks at potential obstacles that could hinder the commercial production and use of SAF from these facilities.
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FAQ: Sustainable Aviation Fuels
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) supports groundbreaking bioenergy technologies to produce industrially viable fuels and products using renewable biomass and waste resources. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is an example of a biofuel that has the potential to deliver the performance of petroleum-based jet fuel but with a fraction of its carbon footprint, giving airlines solid footing for decoupling greenhouse gas emissions from flight. Below are some frequently asked questions (FAQs) about SAF.
White House Fact Sheet ​​​
New Actions Aim to Produce Three Billion Gallons of Sustainable Fuel, Reduce Aviation Emissions by 20% by 2030, and Grow Good-Paying, Union Jobs.
​​RELATED TOOLS
DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center
The Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) provides information, data, and tools to help fleets and other transportation decision makers find ways to reach their energy and economic goals using alternative and renewable fuels, advanced vehicles, and other fuel-saving measures. AFDC provides an overview of SAF production pathways.​​
Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT)
This tool developed by the DOT Volpe Center is designed to analyze the transportation needs and constraints associated with fuel and raw material collection, processing, and distribution in the continental United States. FTOT can be used to explore SAF production and supply chain scenarios and how feedstock supplies can flow optimally over the transportation network.
Download the full version of the SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap: Flight Plan for Sustainable Aviation Fuel.